QuickSwap Upgrades Predictions Market with Bhavish Finance
QuickSwap partnered with Bhavish Finance to upgrade our predictions market.
In June, QuickSwap’s community voted to feature a predictions market built by PRDT Finance. While some of our users enjoyed playing the “up/down game”, others wanted more advanced features and the opportunity to wager on more than just bitcoin. Further, the previous iteration of our predictions market generated far less revenue than we anticipated. We wanted to increase revenue for QUICK stakers and the QuickSwap Foundation, which is why we decided to work with Bhavish Finance.
That said, fee distribution will work almost exactly as with our previous predictions market partner.
Upon placing a wager with Bhavish Finance, the user pays a 2.5% fee regardless of the outcome.
For the first three months Bhavish is operating, The fees will be split as follows:
- 43.37% of the fees will be used to market buy QUICK and distribute to New QUICK stakers in the New Dragon’s Lair
- 21.67% will go to the QuickSwap Foundation, which we use to fund our development and operations
- 35% will go to Bhavish Finance for building and maintaining the market
After three months, when we hope volume has increased, the fees will be split as follows:
- 40% of the fees collected will go to Bhavish Finance for building and maintaining the market
- 40% of the fees collected will be used to market buy QUICK and distribute to stakers in the New QUICK Dragon’s Lair
- 20% will go to QuickSwap’s Foundation, which we use to fund our development and operations
This is the tricky part. We have to remind you (and ourselves) that we have no real way of knowing how much revenue the predictions market might bring in. The last time we did an estimate like this, we were grossly optimistic.
We had anticipated the possibility that 1% of the DEX’s daily trading volume ($21 million at the time) would be played in our prediction market. Using that data, we concluded that in one month, we could collect about $189,000 in fees to be split among the market’s developers, QUICK stakers, and the QuickSwap Foundation. We didn’t even come close to collecting that much in three months (more on that later).
That said — and keeping the depth of the bear market conditions in mind — we’re going to calculate an even more conservative revenue estimation based on recent data.
During the bear market, our volume has been lower than normal. In the first half of September, QuickSwap’s average 24 hour trading volume was $14.32 million. If 0.25% of the daily swap volume is played on Bhavish Finance:
$14.32 million x 0.25% = $35,800
$35,800 x 30 (days in a month) = $1.074 million
$1.074 million x 2.5% fees = $26,850
- 43.37% to DL New QUICK stakers = ($26,850 x 43.37%) = $11,645
- 21.67% to QuickSwap Foundation = ($26,850 x 21.67%) = $5,818
- 35% to Bhavish Finance = ($26,850 x 35%) = $9,398
Note: This is only an estimate of what revenue and distribution could look like in the first 3 months. Demand for this product could be significantly higher or lower than the above numbers suggest.
What about the funds collected from the previous Predictions Market?
In the three months our previous predictions market was operating, QuickSwap’s share of the revenue it generated was 6,905 MATIC (currently worth ~$5,529). Two thirds (~4,603 MATIC) will be converted to New QUICK and distributed to New QUICK stakers in the New Dragon’s Lair when the conversion bot starts. The foundation will use the remaining one-third (~2,302 MATIC) to fund development costs.
What is Different about the Bhavish Finance Predictions Market?
As we mentioned, QuickSwap’s new predictions market offers many advanced features that our previous market did not have. Allow to give you a quick tour…
Head on over to https://quickswap.exchange, connect your wallet, and click the Predictions tab on the top.
A new window will open up. Please note: because predictions and vault strategies are handled by Bhavish Finance and not QuickSwap, you will need to connect your wallet again to interact with our predictions market.
Once your wallet is connected, you can start making predictions.
Under the crypto tab, choose from 4 popular crypto assets including: Matic, Ethereum, Bitcoin (BTC), and BNB. Our previous predictions market only enabled speculation on BTC.
You’ll see an interactive chart for the asset you select and a technical analysis meter — both of which are new features.
To participate, scroll further down the page, and find the next open round (for crypto, each prediction round lasts for 5 minutes). Then, select whether you think the asset in question is Going Up or Going Down.
Select the currency that you’d like to pay in (Matic, USDC, USDT, or DAI). Then enter the amount you want to wager, click Confirm, and confirm the transaction in your wallet.
Once you’ve successfully entered the round, you’ll see Entered, as shown above. Then wait, or enter your prediction for another asset or another round.
If your prediction was incorrect, there’s nothing left to do. If however, your prediction was correct, you’ll want to click Collect Earnings.
A screen will pop open, and you’ll select Collect in MATIC. Then, confirm the transaction in your wallet.
Once you have a complete prediction, you’ll be able to view your data under the Profile tab.
There you can see how much you’ve won (or lost) in both tokens and dollar value, your average return/round, your average position entered/round, and the number of rounds you’ve entered.
The ability to predict stocks’ value is also entirely new. It’s worth noting that users can only speculate on stocks when the US stock market is open — Monday — Friday, 9:30 am — 4 pm EST. The stock market also observes certain holidays, listed here.
These rounds last 30 minutes instead of 5. Users can choose from 3 common stocks, including: Tesla, Apple, and Amazon.
Again, select the token you’d like to pay in, enter the amount of your wage, click Confirm, and confirm the transaction in your wallet. Then, wait.
If you win, collect your rewards. Note: Winnings are always paid in MATIC. You can swap MATIC for whatever asset you like on QuickSwap’s UI.
The commodities tab is another new feature with this iteration of our predictions market.
These rounds last 60 minutes. Users can speculate on the price fluctuation of gold and silver.
The process of entering these rounds is exactly the same as for crypto and stocks.
Vaults are the most innovative new feature that this predictions market offers.
Vaults allow users to deposit funds and earn yield by employing an automated prediction strategy to predict asset movements.
Users can choose from 6 available vaults (more may be added in time). For now, all of the vaults accept only MATIC deposits.
If you’re interested in a vault, click on it, read the strategy, and view its past performance data.
To participate in the vault, enter the amount of MATIC you’d like to commit into the box on the right hand side of the screen. Then, click Deposit and confirm the deposit in your wallet. Note: You can withdraw your funds 24 hours after you deposit them.
To view your deposit’s performance over time, click Your Deposit.
The leaderboard is a place where competitive players can see how they stack up against others who are using the prediction market. Of course, it only shows addresses, not names.
The beauty of this prediction market is that it doesn’t have to affect you at all. It won’t have any impact whatsoever on QuickSwap’s many other features. While we hope that this improved feature will attract some new users and increase revenue to Dragon’s Lair stakers and the QuickSwap Foundation, if you don’t want to use it, you don’t have to.
Finally, while we’re offering this prediction market as an option for those who want to use it, QuickSwap and Bhavish Finance strongly encourage users to do their own research and use this tool with extreme caution.
Let us know if you have any additional questions about the Bhavish Finance prediction market in the comments, and join us on social media to stay up-to-date with all things QuickSwap — Polygon’s most established DEX.